Although affected by Spring Festival, copper spot price has continued to fall, but copper wire and cable enterprises downstream of order of March are full of confidence, copper prices rebound or but period.

The downstream enterprises production orders

According to the investigation report of Shanghai nonferrous metals net issued, 85% wire and cable business think March orders will increase, 10% wire and cable business that order in March to growth, 5% wire and cable business said orders for March will be reduced.

Wire and cable as an important downstream industry of copper products, most enterprises think, because the Spring Festival holiday and off-season factors, the February order less, with the consumer market gradually restored order in March, will increase. In addition, part of the production of enameled wire enameled wire company said, the consumer has entered the peak season, years back has been reflected, March season effect will be more obvious.

"From our understanding, the downstream enterprises operating rate reached 72.53% in March, recovered to January levels but overall is still in the start, the weak recovery stage." Shanghai nonferrous non-ferrous industry analysts Zhu Wenjun told the China Securities journal.

On the other hand, the social copper stock gradually rose. Public data shows, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories rose to nearly a year to the most high, 14 warehouses in Shanghai, Zhejiang and the Jiangsu province data show, refined copper inventory growth of 18000 tons, reaching 226000 tons, an increase of 8.9%, the highest since March 2012.

"Because demand is not good last year, downstream consumption can not keep up the pace, a lot of copper to the society, leading to social copper high inventory. However, it is understood, at present the copper enterprises and downstream enterprises inventory is relatively stable, did not appear high inventory is hard to digest." Zhu Wenjun said.

The price or the bottom rebound

After the Spring Festival, by the economic data and weaker than the market expected, the real estate policy, the downstream demand has not yet been restored and other reasons, copper spot price has slumped to 4% consecutive drop.

Business agency non-ferrous industry analysis normal Hongxia told the China Securities Journal, copper prices fell for three main reasons: one is the fear before the Spring Festival downstream enterprises postganglionic prices, stock up more, and the operating rate is not very high, demand is not soon recover; two is the international market price of copper fell has influence on the domestic market prices; three before the Spring Festival has experienced a wave of rising prices, there is some price bubble.

"Although affected by macroeconomic policies, prices are of great uncertainty, but from experience, downstream enterprise procurement will gradually increase, will price bubble is gradually extruded at prices down in the process, the limited prices down space, is expected in March prices will gradually bottomed out." Fan Hongxia forecast.

Market price is more pessimistic. In 21 wire and cable enterprises Shanghai nonferrous network research, there are cable companies are not optimistic about the late 32% copper, 29% copper cable companies that the near future will maintain the trend of finishing, cable companies only 10% copper cable enterprises optimistic about the market outlook, and 29% with uncertain views on the market outlook for copper.